Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Apr 10th, 2024

Tanya Toye • April 10, 2024

Bank of Canada maintains policy rate, continues quantitative tightening.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

April 10, 2024

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 5%, with the Bank Rate at 5¼% and the deposit rate at 5%. The Bank is continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.

The Bank expects the global economy to continue growing at a rate of about 3%, with inflation in most advanced economies easing gradually. The US economy has again proven stronger than anticipated, buoyed by resilient consumption and robust business and government spending. US GDP growth is expected to slow in the second half of this year, but remain stronger than forecast in January. The euro area is projected to gradually recover from current weak growth. Global oil prices have moved up, averaging about $5 higher than assumed in the January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Since January, bond yields have increased but, with narrower corporate credit spreads and sharply higher equity markets, overall financial conditions have eased.

The Bank has revised up its forecast for global GDP growth to 2¾% in 2024 and about 3% in 2025 and 2026. Inflation continues to slow across most advanced economies, although progress will likely be bumpy. Inflation rates are projected to reach central bank targets in 2025.

In Canada, economic growth stalled in the second half of last year and the economy moved into excess supply. A broad range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions continue to ease. Employment has been growing more slowly than the working-age population and the unemployment rate has risen gradually, reaching 6.1% in March. There are some recent signs that wage pressures are moderating.

Economic growth is forecast to pick up in 2024. This largely reflects both strong population growth and a recovery in spending by households. Residential investment is strengthening, responding to continued robust demand for housing. The contribution to growth from spending by governments has also increased. Business investment is projected to recover gradually after considerable weakness in the second half of last year. The Bank expects exports to continue to grow solidly through 2024.

Overall, the Bank forecasts GDP growth of 1.5% in 2024, 2.2% in 2025, and 1.9% in 2026. The strengthening economy will gradually absorb excess supply through 2025 and into 2026.

CPI inflation slowed to 2.8% in February, with easing in price pressures becoming more broad-based across goods and services. However, shelter price inflation is still very elevated, driven by growth in rent and mortgage interest costs. Core measures of inflation, which had been running around 3½%, slowed to just over 3% in February, and 3-month annualized rates are suggesting downward momentum. The Bank expects CPI inflation to be close to 3% during the first half of this year, move below 2½% in the second half, and reach the 2% inflation target in 2025.

Based on the outlook, Governing Council decided to hold the policy rate at 5% and to continue to normalize the Bank’s balance sheet. While inflation is still too high and risks remain, CPI and core inflation have eased further in recent months. The Council will be looking for evidence that this downward momentum is sustained. Governing Council is particularly watching the evolution of core inflation, and continues to focus on the balance between demand and supply in the economy, inflation expectations, wage growth, and corporate pricing behaviour. The Bank remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is June 5, 2024. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the MPR on July 24, 2024.

Read the April 10th, 2024 Monetary Policy Report

< Older Post Newer Post >

Tanya Toye

Mortgage Broker

GET STARTED

Stress-Testing Your Mortgage Affordability: Why It Matters

By Tanya Toye • July 8, 2026

Buying a home is one of the biggest financial commitments you’ll ever make. That’s why lenders want to be sure you can handle your mortgage payments—not just today, but also if interest rates rise in the future. This is where the mortgage stress test comes in. Many Canadians hear the term but aren’t entirely sure what it means or how it affects them. Let’s break it down in plain language. What Is the Mortgage Stress Test? The stress test is a rule introduced by the federal government that requires all mortgage applicants to qualify at a higher rate than the one they’ll actually pay. Currently, you must qualify at the greater of your contract rate + 2% or the benchmark qualifying rate (set by the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions). For example: If your lender offers you a 5-year fixed mortgage at 5.25%, you must show you could still afford the payments at 7.25% . Even if rates don’t rise that high, the stress test ensures you won’t be overextended if they do. Why Does It Matter? The stress test protects both borrowers and lenders by: Preventing over-borrowing : It ensures you don’t take on more debt than you can realistically handle. Preparing for rate hikes : With interest rates fluctuating, it’s a safeguard against sudden increases. Strengthening financial stability : It lowers the risk of defaults, protecting the housing market as a whole. While it can sometimes feel like a barrier—reducing the amount you qualify for—it’s ultimately designed to keep you from becoming “house poor.” How Does It Impact Buyers? The stress test can significantly affect your homebuying budget. For example, without it, you might qualify for a $600,000 mortgage, but with the stress test applied, you may only qualify for $500,000. That doesn’t mean your dream of homeownership is out of reach—it just means you may need to adjust expectations or explore other strategies, such as: Increasing your down payment Paying down existing debts Considering alternative lenders who may have different qualification standards Why Work With a Mortgage Professional? Every lender applies the stress test, but not every lender views your application the same way. An independent mortgage professional can: Shop multiple lenders to find the best fit Run affordability scenarios at different rates Help you understand how much house you can truly afford—without stretching your finances too thin The Bottom Line The mortgage stress test isn’t meant to stop you from buying a home—it’s there to protect you from financial strain down the road. By understanding how it works and planning ahead, you can make smarter choices and buy with confidence. If you’re thinking about purchasing a home, refinancing, or simply want to know how the stress test affects your options, connect with us today. We’ll help you stress-test your budget and find the mortgage solution that works best for you.

Don’t Overlook Mortgage Penalties When Breaking Your Term Early

By Tanya Toye • July 8, 2026

When most borrowers shop for a mortgage, the focus is usually on one thing: the interest rate. While the upfront rate is certainly important, it’s only one piece of the puzzle. One of the most expensive surprises homeowners can face is discovering the cost of breaking their mortgage before the end of the term. Whether it's due to a move, divorce, job relocation, refinancing opportunity or another life change, mortgage penalties can vary dramatically depending on the lender and product selected. This is why understanding prepayment penalties should be a key part of the mortgage conversation from the very beginning. Variable vs fixed penalties Variable-rate mortgages generally offer more flexibility when it comes to breaking a mortgage early. Most Canadian lenders calculate the penalty for breaking a variable-rate mortgage as three months’ interest. While no one enjoys paying a penalty, the calculation is straightforward and relatively predictable. Fixed-rate mortgages are different. Most fixed-rate mortgages require borrowers to pay the greater of three months' interest or the interest rate differential (IRD) when breaking the mortgage before maturity. Depending on the lender, the penalty calculation may change over the course of the term and the IRD often becomes the dominant factor in determining the cost of breaking a mortgage early. The IRD penalty calculation compares your existing mortgage rate to the lender's current posted rate for a similar remaining term. This is where things become more complicated. Many borrowers receive discounted contract rates that are lower than the lender’s posted rates. However, lenders often use posted rates as part of their penalty calculations. As bond yields push fixed mortgage rates higher, some lenders also adjust posted rates, creating a disconnect that can significantly influence the size of an IRD penalty. In other words, two mortgages with similar rates today could produce very different penalties tomorrow if they need to be broken early. Product selection is more important than upfront rate Mortgage selection should never be based solely on the lowest advertised rate. Features, flexibility, portability options, prepayment privileges and penalty calculations can all have a meaningful impact on the overall cost of borrowing. It's also one of the reasons borrowers should stay connected with their mortgage broker throughout the life of their mortgage. Many homeowners assume the conversation ends once the mortgage funds, but ongoing communication can be incredibly valuable. Sharing your mortgage renewal details when talking to a mortgage broker allows them to better monitor your mortgage moving forward. Knowing your current rate, term maturity date and product structure helps them identify opportunities, anticipate challenges and provide guidance if your circumstances change before your next renewal. A mortgage is not just a rate – it's a long-term financial strategy. Understanding how penalties work today could save you thousands of dollars tomorrow. Before choosing a mortgage product, make sure you’re looking beyond the interest rate and considering the flexibility you'll have if life doesn't go exactly as planned. Wondering which mortgage product is right for you? I’m here to help explain all your options. 604-788-8693 | tanya@tanyatoye.ca