Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Jan 29th, 2025

Tanya Toye • January 29, 2025

Bank of Canada reduces policy rate by 25 basis points to 3%, announces end of quantitative tightening.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

January 29, 2025

The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate to 3%, with the Bank Rate at 3.25% and the deposit rate at 2.95%.1 The Bank is also announcing its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening. The Bank will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.2

Projections in the January Monetary Policy Report (MPR) published today are subject to more-than-usual uncertainty because of the rapidly evolving policy landscape, particularly the threat of trade tariffs by the new administration in the United States. Since the scope and duration of a possible trade conflict are impossible to predict, this MPR provides a baseline forecast in the absence of new tariffs.

In the MPR projection, the global economy is expected to continue growing by about 3% over the next two years. Growth in the United States has been revised up, mainly due to stronger consumption. Growth in the euro area is likely to be subdued as the region copes with competitiveness pressures. In China, recent policy actions are boosting demand and supporting near-term growth, although structural challenges remain. Since October, financial conditions have diverged across countries. US bond yields have risen, supported by strong growth and more persistent inflation. In contrast, yields in Canada are down slightly. The Canadian dollar has depreciated materially against the US dollar, largely reflecting trade uncertainty and broader strength in the US currency. Oil prices have been volatile and in recent weeks have been about $5 higher than was assumed in the October MPR.

In Canada, past cuts to interest rates have started to boost the economy. The recent strengthening in both consumption and housing activity is expected to continue. However, business investment remains weak. The outlook for exports is being supported by new export capacity for oil and gas.

Canada’s labour market remains soft, with the unemployment rate at 6.7% in December. Job growth has strengthened in recent months, after lagging growth in the labour force for more than a year. Wage pressures, which have proven sticky, are showing some signs of easing.

The Bank forecasts GDP growth will strengthen in 2025. However, with slower population growth because of reduced immigration targets, both GDP and potential growth will be more moderate than was expected in October. Following growth of 1.3% in 2024, the Bank now projects GDP will grow by 1.8% in both 2025 and 2026, somewhat higher than potential growth. As a result, excess supply in the economy is gradually absorbed over the projection horizon.

CPI inflation remains close to 2%, with some volatility due to the temporary suspension of the GST/HST on some consumer products. Shelter price inflation is still elevated but it is easing gradually, as expected. A broad range of indicators, including surveys of inflation expectations and the distribution of price changes among components of the CPI, suggests that underlying inflation is close to 2%. The Bank forecasts CPI inflation will be around the 2% target over the next two years.

Setting aside threatened US tariffs, the upside and downside risks around the outlook are reasonably balanced. However, as discussed in the MPR, a protracted trade conflict would most likely lead to weaker GDP and higher prices in Canada.

With inflation around 2% and the economy in excess supply, Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate a further 25 basis points to 3%. The cumulative reduction in the policy rate since last June is substantial. Lower interest rates are boosting household spending and, in the outlook published today, the economy is expected to strengthen gradually and inflation to stay close to target. However, if broad-based and significant tariffs were imposed, the resilience of Canada’s economy would be tested. We will be following developments closely and assessing the implications for economic activity, inflation and monetary policy in Canada. The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is March 12, 2025. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the MPR on April 16, 2025.

Footnotes

1. Effective January 30, the deposit rate will be set at 5 basis points below the Bank’s policy interest rate to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy implementation. For more details, see the market notice published simultaneously with this press release.[←]
2. A market notice published simultaneously with this press release provides operational details.[←]

Read the January 29th, 2025 Monetary Report.

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Employment and Mortgage Qualification: What Lenders Look For

By Tanya Toye • September 30, 2026

When you apply for a mortgage, your employment history and status carry a lot of weight. Even if you feel secure in your job, lenders need proof that your income is reliable and will continue. To them, your employment status is one of the strongest indicators of whether you can make your mortgage payments long term. Here’s how lenders typically view different employment situations: Permanent Employment This is the gold standard. Once you’ve passed any probationary period and hold permanent status, lenders see you as a lower risk. It shows that your employer is committed to you, and your income is steady. Probationary Periods If you’re still on probation—usually 3 to 6 months, though sometimes longer—lenders may hesitate. That’s because your employer can end your contract without cause during this period. Once probation is over, you’re considered more secure. That said, context matters. If you’ve worked with the same company for years as a contractor and just transitioned into full-time employment, lenders may accept a letter from your employer confirming that probation is waived. Documentation is key here. Parental Leave Being on or about to take parental leave doesn’t mean you can’t qualify for a mortgage. As long as you have a letter from your employer guaranteeing your position and return-to-work date, lenders can use your regular salary—not your leave income—when assessing your application. Term Contracts This is one of the trickiest categories. Even highly skilled professionals with strong incomes can face challenges here. A term contract has a start and end date, which makes lenders question the stability of your future income. To use term-contract income, lenders generally want to see at least two years of history, or proof that your contract has already been renewed. The more evidence you can show of consistent employment, the stronger your case will be. The Bottom Line If you’re planning to apply for a mortgage, it’s important to understand how your employment status could affect your approval. Whether you’re starting a new job, coming back from leave, or working under contract, lenders want documentation that proves your income is reliable. 📞 If you’ve recently changed jobs or are planning a career shift, let’s connect. I can help you prepare your file so you qualify with confidence and avoid surprises in the approval process.

Homeowner Credit is Becoming Part of the Longer-Term Financial Conversation

By Tanya Toye • September 29, 2026

Credit has traditionally been viewed as something you use for a specific purpose: buying a home, financing a major purchase or covering an unexpected expense. But with higher living costs, slower economic conditions and less financial flexibility, credit is increasingly becoming part of a longer-term financial conversation. That doesn’t mean taking on debt indefinitely or relying on borrowing to solve every financial challenge. But it’s important to understand the tools available and the necessity of making thoughtful decisions about when and how credit may fit into your broader financial plan. A Fresh Take on Credit In many ways, households are beginning to approach financial management with more of a business mindset. Businesses regularly evaluate cashflow, consider available sources of financing and balance immediate needs against longer-term objectives. They don’t necessarily borrow simply because credit is available. They consider why they need the funds, what the financing will cost and how it fits into their overall strategy. The same thinking can be useful for homeowners. When household budgets are under pressure, the question isn’t always, “How can I avoid using credit?” It may also be, “What options are available and do any of them make sense for my situation?” That could mean refinancing, consolidating certain debts, using a home equity line of credit or considering another form of financing. The appropriate option depends on your circumstances, objectives and ability to manage the associated costs. Home Equity May Be Part of the Conversation For homeowners who have built significant equity, your home can represent an important financial resource. That’s one reason I’m seeing more openness to conversations about reverse mortgages. A reverse mortgage isn’t appropriate for everyone, and it shouldn’t be viewed as a simple solution to financial challenges. For the right homeowner and in the right circumstances, however, it may provide access to home equity and improve cashflow without requiring you to sell or move. The important thing is understanding how the option works, what it costs and how it affects your broader financial picture. Credit Requires Discipline Regardless of the type of credit being considered, having a plan is essential. Before taking on additional borrowing costs, it’s worthwhile understanding why you need the funds, how much is appropriate, the overall cost of borrowing and how your longer-term repayment or exit strategy looks. Credit can provide flexibility when financial circumstances are changing. But its value comes from using it intentionally and responsibly – as one part of a larger plan designed to support financial stability and resilience. The goal isn’t simply to borrow more – it’s to understand your options and make credit work within a financial strategy that makes sense for you. Let’s talk about how you may be able to leverage credit to your advantage. Contact Tanya: 604-788-8693 | tanya@tanyatoye.ca