Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Jul 12th, 2023

Tanya Toye • July 12, 2023

Bank of Canada raises policy rate 25 basis points, continues quantitative tightening.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

July 12, 2023

The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 5%, with the Bank Rate at 5¼% and the deposit rate at 5%. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.

Global inflation is easing, with lower energy prices and a decline in goods price inflation. However, robust demand and tight labour markets are causing persistent inflationary pressures in services. Economic growth has been stronger than expected, especially in the United States, where consumer and business spending has been surprisingly resilient. After a surge in early 2023, China’s economic growth is softening, with slowing exports and ongoing weakness in its property sector. Growth in the euro area is effectively stalled: while the service sector continues to grow, manufacturing is contracting. Global financial conditions have tightened, with bond yields up in North America and Europe as major central banks signal further interest rate increases may be needed to combat inflation.

The Bank’s July Monetary Policy Report (MPR) projects the global economy will grow by around 2.8% this year and 2.4% in 2024, followed by 2.7% growth in 2025.

Canada’s economy has been stronger than expected, with more momentum in demand. Consumption growth has been surprisingly strong at 5.8% in the first quarter. While the Bank expects consumer spending to slow in response to the cumulative increase in interest rates, recent retail trade and other data suggest more persistent excess demand in the economy. In addition, the housing market has seen some pickup. New construction and real estate listings are lagging demand, which is adding pressure to prices. In the labour market, there are signs of more availability of workers, but conditions remain tight, and wage growth has been around 4-5%. Strong population growth from immigration is adding both demand and supply to the economy: newcomers are helping to ease the shortage of workers while also boosting consumer spending and adding to demand for housing.

As higher interest rates continue to work their way through the economy, the Bank expects economic growth to slow, averaging around 1% through the second half of this year and the first half of next year. This implies real GDP growth of 1.8% in 2023 and 1.2% in 2024. The economy will move into modest excess supply early next year before growth picks up to 2.4% in 2025.

Inflation in Canada eased to 3.4% in May, a substantial and welcome drop from its peak of 8.1% last summer. While CPI inflation has come down largely as expected so far this year, the downward momentum has come more from lower energy prices, and less from easing underlying inflation. With the large price increases of last year out of the annual data, there will be less near-term downward momentum in CPI inflation. Moreover, with three-month rates of core inflation running around 3½-4% since last September, underlying price pressures appear to be more persistent than anticipated. This is reinforced by the Bank’s business surveys, which find businesses are still increasing their prices more frequently than normal.

In the July MPR projection, CPI inflation is forecast to hover around 3% for the next year before gradually declining to 2% in the middle of 2025. This is a slower return to target than was forecast in the January and April projections. Governing Council remains concerned that progress towards the 2% target could stall, jeopardizing the return to price stability.

In light of the accumulation of evidence that excess demand and elevated core inflation are both proving more persistent, and taking into account its revised outlook for economic activity and inflation, Governing Council decided to increase the policy interest rate to 5%. Quantitative tightening is complementing the restrictive stance of monetary policy and normalizing the Bank’s balance sheet. Governing Council will continue to assess the dynamics of core inflation and the outlook for CPI inflation. In particular, we will be evaluating whether the evolution of excess demand, inflation expectations, wage growth and corporate pricing behaviour are consistent with achieving the 2% inflation target. The Bank remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is September 6, 2023. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the Monetary Policy Report on October 25, 2023.

Read the July 12th, 2023 Monetary Policy Report

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Employment and Mortgage Qualification: What Lenders Look For

By Tanya Toye • September 30, 2026

When you apply for a mortgage, your employment history and status carry a lot of weight. Even if you feel secure in your job, lenders need proof that your income is reliable and will continue. To them, your employment status is one of the strongest indicators of whether you can make your mortgage payments long term. Here’s how lenders typically view different employment situations: Permanent Employment This is the gold standard. Once you’ve passed any probationary period and hold permanent status, lenders see you as a lower risk. It shows that your employer is committed to you, and your income is steady. Probationary Periods If you’re still on probation—usually 3 to 6 months, though sometimes longer—lenders may hesitate. That’s because your employer can end your contract without cause during this period. Once probation is over, you’re considered more secure. That said, context matters. If you’ve worked with the same company for years as a contractor and just transitioned into full-time employment, lenders may accept a letter from your employer confirming that probation is waived. Documentation is key here. Parental Leave Being on or about to take parental leave doesn’t mean you can’t qualify for a mortgage. As long as you have a letter from your employer guaranteeing your position and return-to-work date, lenders can use your regular salary—not your leave income—when assessing your application. Term Contracts This is one of the trickiest categories. Even highly skilled professionals with strong incomes can face challenges here. A term contract has a start and end date, which makes lenders question the stability of your future income. To use term-contract income, lenders generally want to see at least two years of history, or proof that your contract has already been renewed. The more evidence you can show of consistent employment, the stronger your case will be. The Bottom Line If you’re planning to apply for a mortgage, it’s important to understand how your employment status could affect your approval. Whether you’re starting a new job, coming back from leave, or working under contract, lenders want documentation that proves your income is reliable. 📞 If you’ve recently changed jobs or are planning a career shift, let’s connect. I can help you prepare your file so you qualify with confidence and avoid surprises in the approval process.

Homeowner Credit is Becoming Part of the Longer-Term Financial Conversation

By Tanya Toye • September 29, 2026

Credit has traditionally been viewed as something you use for a specific purpose: buying a home, financing a major purchase or covering an unexpected expense. But with higher living costs, slower economic conditions and less financial flexibility, credit is increasingly becoming part of a longer-term financial conversation. That doesn’t mean taking on debt indefinitely or relying on borrowing to solve every financial challenge. But it’s important to understand the tools available and the necessity of making thoughtful decisions about when and how credit may fit into your broader financial plan. A Fresh Take on Credit In many ways, households are beginning to approach financial management with more of a business mindset. Businesses regularly evaluate cashflow, consider available sources of financing and balance immediate needs against longer-term objectives. They don’t necessarily borrow simply because credit is available. They consider why they need the funds, what the financing will cost and how it fits into their overall strategy. The same thinking can be useful for homeowners. When household budgets are under pressure, the question isn’t always, “How can I avoid using credit?” It may also be, “What options are available and do any of them make sense for my situation?” That could mean refinancing, consolidating certain debts, using a home equity line of credit or considering another form of financing. The appropriate option depends on your circumstances, objectives and ability to manage the associated costs. Home Equity May Be Part of the Conversation For homeowners who have built significant equity, your home can represent an important financial resource. That’s one reason I’m seeing more openness to conversations about reverse mortgages. A reverse mortgage isn’t appropriate for everyone, and it shouldn’t be viewed as a simple solution to financial challenges. For the right homeowner and in the right circumstances, however, it may provide access to home equity and improve cashflow without requiring you to sell or move. The important thing is understanding how the option works, what it costs and how it affects your broader financial picture. Credit Requires Discipline Regardless of the type of credit being considered, having a plan is essential. Before taking on additional borrowing costs, it’s worthwhile understanding why you need the funds, how much is appropriate, the overall cost of borrowing and how your longer-term repayment or exit strategy looks. Credit can provide flexibility when financial circumstances are changing. But its value comes from using it intentionally and responsibly – as one part of a larger plan designed to support financial stability and resilience. The goal isn’t simply to borrow more – it’s to understand your options and make credit work within a financial strategy that makes sense for you. Let’s talk about how you may be able to leverage credit to your advantage. Contact Tanya: 604-788-8693 | tanya@tanyatoye.ca