Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Oct 23rd, 2024

Tanya Toye • October 23, 2024

Bank of Canada reduces policy rate by 50 basis points to 3¾%.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

October 23, 2024

The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate to 3¾%, with the Bank Rate at 4% and the deposit rate at 3¾%. The Bank is continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization.

The Bank continues to expect the global economy to expand at a rate of about 3% over the next two years. Growth in the United States is now expected to be stronger than previously forecast while the outlook for China remains subdued. Growth in the euro area has been soft but should recover modestly next year. Inflation in advanced economies has declined in recent months, and is now around central bank targets. Global financial conditions have eased since July, in part because of market expectations of lower policy interest rates. Global oil prices are about $10 lower than assumed in the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR).

In Canada, the economy grew at around 2% in the first half of the year and we expect growth of 1¾% in the second half. Consumption has continued to grow but is declining on a per person basis. Exports have been boosted by the opening of the Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline. The labour market remains soft—the unemployment rate was at 6.5% in September. Population growth has continued to expand the labour force while hiring has been modest. This has particularly affected young people and newcomers to Canada. Wage growth remains elevated relative to productivity growth. Overall, the economy continues to be in excess supply.

GDP growth is forecast to strengthen gradually over the projection horizon, supported by lower interest rates. This forecast largely reflects the net effect of a gradual pick up in consumer spending per person and slower population growth. Residential investment growth is also projected to rise as strong demand for housing lifts sales and spending on renovations. Business investment is expected to strengthen as demand picks up, and exports should remain strong, supported by robust demand from the United States.

Overall, the Bank forecasts GDP growth of 1.2% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, and 2.3% in 2026. As the economy strengthens, excess supply is gradually absorbed.

CPI inflation has declined significantly from 2.7% in June to 1.6% in September. Inflation in shelter costs remains elevated but has begun to ease. Excess supply elsewhere in the economy has reduced inflation in the prices of many goods and services. The drop in global oil prices has led to lower gasoline prices. These factors have all combined to bring inflation down. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation are now below 2½%. With inflationary pressures no longer broad-based, business and consumer inflation expectations have largely normalized.

The Bank expects inflation to remain close to the target over the projection horizon, with the upward and downward pressures on inflation roughly balancing out. The upward pressure from shelter and other services gradually diminishes, and the downward pressure on inflation recedes as excess supply in the economy is absorbed.

With inflation now back around the 2% target, Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate by 50 basis points to support economic growth and keep inflation close to the middle of the 1% to 3% range. If the economy evolves broadly in line with our latest forecast, we expect to reduce the policy rate further. However, the timing and pace of further reductions in the policy rate will be guided by incoming information and our assessment of its implications for the inflation outlook. We will take decisions one meeting at a time. The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is December 11, 2024. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the MPR on January 29, 2025.

Read the October 23rd, 2024 Monetary Report.

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Establishing New Credit

By Tanya Toye • June 25, 2025

If you’re new to managing personal finance and you want to learn about credit, you’ve come to the right place. Establishing new credit is a bit of a catch-22. To build a credit history, you need credit. But it’s hard to get credit without having a credit history. So, where do you start? Well, the first thing you should know is that building credit takes time. It’s not something that happens overnight. If you’re looking to secure mortgage financing, you will want to have a minimum of two trade lines (credit cards, loans, or lines of credit) with a minimum limit of $2500, reporting for at least two years. If you don’t have any credit yet, the best time to get started is right now. However, that may be difficult because, as we've already identified, without a credit history, most lenders won’t feel confident about taking a chance on you. What’s the solution? Consider a secured credit card. With a secured credit card, you make a deposit upfront that matches the amount you want to borrow. A reasonable amount would be $1000 deposited on a single secured credit card. You then use your secured credit card to make household purchases and regular utility payments, paying off the total balance each month. If you default on the money borrowed for whatever reason, the lender will retain the money you put up as collateral. When looking for a secured credit card, be sure to ask whether they report to the two nationwide credit bureaus, Equifax and TransUnion. If the credit card company doesn't report, the credit card account will be useless for your purposes; move on until you find a company that reports to both credit bureaus. Once your secured credit card begins reporting to the credit bureaus, you begin to have a credit score; usually, this takes about three months. Now you can start to seek out a second trade line in the form of an unsecured credit card. Don’t forget to ensure that this card reports to both of the credit reporting agencies. Another option at this point could be a car loan. From here, you simply want to make all your payments on time! But what happens if you’re looking to secure mortgage financing before you have a fully established credit report? Well, if you have someone who would consider co-signing, you can certainly go that route. The mortgage application will depend on their income and credit report, but your name will be on the mortgage. Hopefully, when the mortgage is up for renewal, you’ll have the established credit required to remove them from the mortgage and qualify on your own. Although establishing credit takes a minimum of two years, it really begins with putting together a plan. If you’d like to discuss anything credit or mortgage-related, please get in touch!

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By Tanya Toye • June 20, 2025

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