Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Jan 28th, 2026

Tanya Toye • January 28, 2026

Bank of Canada maintains policy rate at 2¼%.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

January 28, 2026

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%.

The outlook for the global and Canadian economies is little changed relative to the projection in the October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). However, the outlook is vulnerable to unpredictable US trade policies and geopolitical risks.

Economic growth in the United States continues to outpace expectations and is projected to remain solid, driven by AI-related investment and consumer spending. Tariffs are pushing up US inflation, although their effect is expected to fade gradually later this year. In the euro area, growth has been supported by activity in service sectors and will get additional support from fiscal policy. China’s GDP growth is expected to slow gradually, as weakening domestic demand offsets strength in exports. Overall, the Bank expects global growth to average about 3% over the projection horizon.

Global financial conditions have remained accommodative overall. Recent weakness in the US dollar has pushed the Canadian dollar above 72 cents, roughly where it had been since the October MPR. Oil prices have been fluctuating in response to geopolitical events and, going forward, are assumed to be slightly below the levels in the October report.

US trade restrictions and uncertainty continue to disrupt growth in Canada. After a strong third quarter, GDP growth in the fourth quarter likely stalled. Exports continue to be buffeted by US tariffs, while domestic demand appears to be picking up. Employment has risen in recent months. Still, the unemployment rate remains elevated at 6.8% and relatively few businesses say they plan to hire more workers.

Economic growth is projected to be modest in the near term as population growth slows and Canada adjusts to US protectionism. In the projection, consumer spending holds up and business investment strengthens gradually, with fiscal policy providing some support. The Bank projects growth of 1.1% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027, broadly in line with the October projection. A key source of uncertainty is the upcoming review of the Canada-US-Mexico Agreement.

CPI inflation picked up in December to 2.4%, boosted by base-year effects linked to last winter’s GST/HST holiday. Excluding the effect of changes in taxes, inflation has been slowing since September. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation have eased from 3% in October to around 2½% in December. Inflation was 2.1% in 2025 and the Bank expects inflation to stay close to the 2% target over the projection period, with trade-related cost pressures offset by excess supply.

Monetary policy is focused on keeping inflation close to the 2% target while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment. Governing Council judges the current policy rate remains appropriate, conditional on the economy evolving broadly in line with the outlook we published today. However, uncertainty is heightened and we are monitoring risks closely. If the outlook changes, we are prepared to respond. The Bank is committed to ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is March 18, 2026. The Bank’s next MPR will be released on April 29, 2026.

Read the January 28th, 2026 Monetary Report

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Self-Employed? Let’s Get You Qualified for a Mortgage

By Tanya Toye • September 16, 2026

Being self-employed comes with plenty of advantages, including the ability to structure your business how you choose and claim expenses to reduce your taxable income. But, when it comes time to apply for a mortgage, those same tax strategies can sometimes make qualifying more complicated. One of the first considerations is how your business is structured. There can be differences in how lenders assess income for someone who is incorporated compared with someone who operates as a sole proprietor or partnership. Depending on the lender and the circumstances, income may be reviewed using personal tax returns, corporate financial statements or a combination of documents. Another important factor is the level of business write-offs you claim. As a business owner, reducing your taxable income can make good financial sense. However, a lower reported income can also mean a lower qualifying income when a lender assesses your mortgage application. This can create a frustrating situation where you may have strong cashflow and the ability to comfortably afford the mortgage, but your tax returns don’t necessarily tell the whole story. That doesn’t automatically mean you need to start declaring significantly more income and paying substantially more to the CRA just so you can qualify for a mortgage. Alternative mortgage solutions may be a great option Depending on your circumstances, there may be alternative mortgage solutions available that take a broader view of your financial situation. Some lenders have different approaches to self-employed income and may be able to consider additional documentation or alternate methods of demonstrating your ability to repay the mortgage. This can create an important financial decision for self-employed borrowers. Is it more beneficial to pay additional taxes to show a higher income or consider a mortgage option with a higher interest rate that may allow you to qualify based on your existing financial structure? There isn’t a one-size-fits-all answer. The right approach depends on your income, business structure, financial goals, credit profile, down payment and how long you expect to be in that mortgage. The key is to have the conversation before you make changes to how you report your income. A mortgage broker who understands self-employed borrowers can help you explore your options and compare the potential costs of different approaches. Instead of assuming you need to change the way you run your business to qualify for a mortgage, it may be worth looking at the lending solutions available to you first. Being self-employed shouldn’t automatically make getting a mortgage more difficult. It just means your mortgage strategy may need to be as individual as your business. Let’s discuss your options. 604-788-8693 | tanya@tanyatoye.ca

RRSP Home Buyers’ Plan Explained: A Smart Way to Buy Your First Home

By Tanya Toye • September 16, 2026

Saving for a down payment is one of the biggest challenges first-time buyers face. What many don’t realize is that the Canadian government offers a program designed to make it easier—the Home Buyers’ Plan (HBP) . This program allows you to withdraw money from your RRSP to help purchase your first home, without immediate tax consequences. Here’s how it works: Who Qualifies? To be eligible, you generally need to be a first-time home buyer. In practical terms, this means you must not have owned a home in the past four years, nor lived in a property owned by your spouse or partner during that time. There are also special allowances if you’re living with a disability or helping a relative with a disability. In these cases, you can use the HBP even if you’ve owned a home more recently. How Much Can You Withdraw? Under the program, you can access up to $35,000 from your RRSP as an individual. Couples can combine their withdrawals for a total of $70,000 . These funds must have been in your RRSP for at least 90 days before you take them out. Paying It Back The HBP isn’t “free money”—it’s an interest-free loan from your own retirement savings. You’ll have 15 years to repay the full amount back into your RRSP, starting in the second year after withdrawal. Each year, the CRA will send you an HBP Statement of Account outlining how much needs to be repaid. If you don’t make your repayment in a given year, that amount will be added to your taxable income. Why It’s a Smart Strategy The HBP can give first-time buyers a powerful boost toward homeownership. It helps you put together a larger down payment, which can reduce your mortgage amount and monthly payments. Just remember: it’s important to balance the short-term benefit of homeownership with the long-term impact on your retirement savings. Next Steps Thinking about using the Home Buyers’ Plan? Let’s sit down and review whether it’s the right move for you. Together, we can create a strategy that gets you into your first home while keeping your future financial goals on track. 📞 Reach out anytime—it would be a pleasure to guide you through the process.