Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Oct 29th, 2025

Tanya Toye • October 29, 2025

Bank of Canada lowers policy rate to 2¼%.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

October 29, 2025

The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%.

With the effects of US trade actions on economic growth and inflation somewhat clearer, the Bank has returned to its usual practice of providing a projection for the global and Canadian economies in this Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Because US trade policy remains unpredictable and uncertainty is still higher than normal, this projection is subject to a wider-than-usual range of risks.

While the global economy has been resilient to the historic rise in US tariffs, the impact is becoming more evident. Trade relationships are being reconfigured and ongoing trade tensions are dampening investment in many countries. In the MPR projection, the global economy slows from about 3¼% in 2025 to about 3% in 2026 and 2027.

In the United States, economic activity has been strong, supported by the boom in AI investment. At the same time, employment growth has slowed and tariffs have started to push up consumer prices. Growth in the euro area is decelerating due to weaker exports and slowing domestic demand. In China, lower exports to the United States have been offset by higher exports to other countries, but business investment has weakened. Global financial conditions have eased further since July and oil prices have been fairly stable. The Canadian dollar has depreciated slightly against the US dollar.

Canada’s economy contracted by 1.6% in the second quarter, reflecting a drop in exports and weak business investment amid heightened uncertainty. Meanwhile, household spending grew at a healthy pace. US trade actions and related uncertainty are having severe effects on targeted sectors including autos, steel, aluminum, and lumber. As a result, GDP growth is expected to be weak in the second half of the year. Growth will get some support from rising consumer and government spending and residential investment, and then pick up gradually as exports and business investment begin to recover.

Canada’s labour market remains soft. Employment gains in September followed two months of sizeable losses. Job losses continue to build in trade-sensitive sectors and hiring has been weak across the economy. The unemployment rate remained at 7.1% in September and wage growth has slowed. Slower population growth means fewer new jobs are needed to keep the employment rate steady.

The Bank projects GDP will grow by 1.2% in 2025, 1.1% in 2026 and 1.6% in 2027. On a quarterly basis, growth strengthens in 2026 after a weak second half of this year. Excess capacity in the economy is expected to persist and be taken up gradually.

CPI inflation was 2.4% in September, slightly higher than the Bank had anticipated. Inflation excluding taxes was 2.9%. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation have been sticky around 3%. Expanding the range of indicators to include alternative measures of core inflation and the distribution of price changes among CPI components suggests underlying inflation remains around 2½%. The Bank expects inflationary pressures to ease in the months ahead and CPI inflation to remain near 2% over the projection horizon.

With ongoing weakness in the economy and inflation expected to remain close to the 2% target, Governing Council decided to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points. If inflation and economic activity evolve broadly in line with the October projection, Governing Council sees the current policy rate at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2% while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment. If the outlook changes, we are prepared to respond. Governing Council will be assessing incoming data carefully relative to the Bank’s forecast.

The Canadian economy faces a difficult transition. The structural damage caused by the trade conflict reduces the capacity of the economy and adds costs. This limits the role that monetary policy can play to boost demand while maintaining low inflation. The Bank is focused on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is December 10, 2025. The Bank’s next MPR will be released on January 28, 2026.

Read the October 29th, 2025 Monetary Report

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Employment and Mortgage Qualification: What Lenders Look For

By Tanya Toye • September 30, 2026

When you apply for a mortgage, your employment history and status carry a lot of weight. Even if you feel secure in your job, lenders need proof that your income is reliable and will continue. To them, your employment status is one of the strongest indicators of whether you can make your mortgage payments long term. Here’s how lenders typically view different employment situations: Permanent Employment This is the gold standard. Once you’ve passed any probationary period and hold permanent status, lenders see you as a lower risk. It shows that your employer is committed to you, and your income is steady. Probationary Periods If you’re still on probation—usually 3 to 6 months, though sometimes longer—lenders may hesitate. That’s because your employer can end your contract without cause during this period. Once probation is over, you’re considered more secure. That said, context matters. If you’ve worked with the same company for years as a contractor and just transitioned into full-time employment, lenders may accept a letter from your employer confirming that probation is waived. Documentation is key here. Parental Leave Being on or about to take parental leave doesn’t mean you can’t qualify for a mortgage. As long as you have a letter from your employer guaranteeing your position and return-to-work date, lenders can use your regular salary—not your leave income—when assessing your application. Term Contracts This is one of the trickiest categories. Even highly skilled professionals with strong incomes can face challenges here. A term contract has a start and end date, which makes lenders question the stability of your future income. To use term-contract income, lenders generally want to see at least two years of history, or proof that your contract has already been renewed. The more evidence you can show of consistent employment, the stronger your case will be. The Bottom Line If you’re planning to apply for a mortgage, it’s important to understand how your employment status could affect your approval. Whether you’re starting a new job, coming back from leave, or working under contract, lenders want documentation that proves your income is reliable. 📞 If you’ve recently changed jobs or are planning a career shift, let’s connect. I can help you prepare your file so you qualify with confidence and avoid surprises in the approval process.

Homeowner Credit is Becoming Part of the Longer-Term Financial Conversation

By Tanya Toye • September 29, 2026

Credit has traditionally been viewed as something you use for a specific purpose: buying a home, financing a major purchase or covering an unexpected expense. But with higher living costs, slower economic conditions and less financial flexibility, credit is increasingly becoming part of a longer-term financial conversation. That doesn’t mean taking on debt indefinitely or relying on borrowing to solve every financial challenge. But it’s important to understand the tools available and the necessity of making thoughtful decisions about when and how credit may fit into your broader financial plan. A Fresh Take on Credit In many ways, households are beginning to approach financial management with more of a business mindset. Businesses regularly evaluate cashflow, consider available sources of financing and balance immediate needs against longer-term objectives. They don’t necessarily borrow simply because credit is available. They consider why they need the funds, what the financing will cost and how it fits into their overall strategy. The same thinking can be useful for homeowners. When household budgets are under pressure, the question isn’t always, “How can I avoid using credit?” It may also be, “What options are available and do any of them make sense for my situation?” That could mean refinancing, consolidating certain debts, using a home equity line of credit or considering another form of financing. The appropriate option depends on your circumstances, objectives and ability to manage the associated costs. Home Equity May Be Part of the Conversation For homeowners who have built significant equity, your home can represent an important financial resource. That’s one reason I’m seeing more openness to conversations about reverse mortgages. A reverse mortgage isn’t appropriate for everyone, and it shouldn’t be viewed as a simple solution to financial challenges. For the right homeowner and in the right circumstances, however, it may provide access to home equity and improve cashflow without requiring you to sell or move. The important thing is understanding how the option works, what it costs and how it affects your broader financial picture. Credit Requires Discipline Regardless of the type of credit being considered, having a plan is essential. Before taking on additional borrowing costs, it’s worthwhile understanding why you need the funds, how much is appropriate, the overall cost of borrowing and how your longer-term repayment or exit strategy looks. Credit can provide flexibility when financial circumstances are changing. But its value comes from using it intentionally and responsibly – as one part of a larger plan designed to support financial stability and resilience. The goal isn’t simply to borrow more – it’s to understand your options and make credit work within a financial strategy that makes sense for you. Let’s talk about how you may be able to leverage credit to your advantage. Contact Tanya: 604-788-8693 | tanya@tanyatoye.ca